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1 – 3 of 3Anastasia A. Kurilova, Kirill Y. Kurilov, Tatiana A. Dugina and Evgeny A. Likholetov
The purpose of the chapter is to study regional (in the global scale) peculiarities of the 2008 global economic crisis and to determine socio-economic systems that are in the…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of the chapter is to study regional (in the global scale) peculiarities of the 2008 global economic crisis and to determine socio-economic systems that are in the phase of crisis (long recession).
Methodology
The research objects are regional associations of countries according to the classification of the participants of the global economic system of the International Monetary Fund. The research is conducted by aggregation (the method of finding direct average) of the annual growth rate of GDP in constant prices by the selected categories of regional socio-economic systems. Timeframe of the research covers 2006–2018 and the forecast period of 2019–2022. The methodological tools of the research include the methods of horizontal and trend analysis.
Conclusions
It is determined that most developing countries – Commonwealth of Independent States, emerging and developing Asia and Latin America, and the Caribbean – are in a long recession and will overcome the consequences of the crisis only in the mid-term. Developing countries from the categories the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and sub-Saharan Africa faced a deep and long second wave of the crisis and will have a long recession until 2022. They will overcome it only in the long-term. The only category of developing countries – emerging and developing Europe – despite the general downward trend of GDP in constant prices – shows sustainable development and has already overcome the crisis.
Originality/value
The influence of the global economic crisis on the global economic system through the prism of the regional aspect is specified. It is shown that at present (2018) most regions of the global economic system are covered with crisis and will have long recession until 2022. Developing countries have faced the highest damage from the 2008 crisis, and most of them have the second or even the third wave of crisis.
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Anastasia A. Kurilova, Kirill Y. Kurilov, Svetlana A. Popova and Elena A. Nemkina
The purpose of the chapter is to describe the concept of conflicts of socio-economic systems on the basis of the theory and methodology of the systemic approach.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of the chapter is to describe the concept of conflicts of socio-economic systems on the basis of the theory and methodology of the systemic approach.
Methodology
The authors use the provisions of the systemic approach.
Conclusions
It is determined that dynamic socio-economic system is susceptible to conflicts, which, according to the Systemic approach, are bifurcation points. The features of conflict that allow defining it as a bifurcation point are its short duration, violation of sustainability of socio-economic system, uncertainty of consequences, influence on the system on the whole (cascade effect), and multiplicity of scenarios of development of socio-economic system after the conflict.
Originality/value
Studying conflict with the help of the theory and methodology of the systemic approach allowed determining the fact that conflict is a violation of order in a socio-economic system (which specifies definition of conflict and its essence) and could be evaluated through the measure of the system’s order (which specifies methodology of conflict evaluation). Moreover, conflict in a socio-economic system emerges not at once – it is accumulated under joint negative influences of internal and external factors. Further, the performed research allows specifying the classification of conflicts, which is offered in previous chapters – according to scenarios of development of socio-economic system after the conflict, normal (leading to normal change of system), abrupt (leading to abrupt change of the system), and attraction (all following states of the system are sustainable) conflicts are possible.
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